2018 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY – A VIEW TO 2040
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2040. We use the Outlook to help inform our long-term business strategies and investment plans. The Outlook anticipates significant changes through 2040 across the world to boost living standards, reshape the use of energy, broaden access to abundant energy supplies, and accelerate decarbonization of the world’s energy system to address the risks of climate change.
• Energy powers modern economies and living standards
By 2030, the world’s economic middle class will likely expand from 3 billion to more than 5 billion people. This growth will coincide with vastly improved living standards, resulting in rising energy use in many developing countries as people develop modern businesses and gain access to cars, appliances and air-conditioned homes.
• Global energy needs rise about 25 percent, led by non-OECD nations
Despite efficiency gains, global energy demand will likely increase nearly 25 percent. Nearly all growth will be in non-OECD countries (e.g. China, India), where demand will likely increase about 40 percent, or about the same amount of energy used in the Americas today.
• Electricity demand nearly doubles in non-OECD nations
Human activity continues to be dependent on reliable supplies of electricity. Global electricity demand will rise by 60 percent between 2016 and 2040, led by a near doubling of demand in non-OECD countries.
• Natural gas expands role to meet a wide variety of needs
The abundance and versatility of natural gas make it a valuable energy source to meet a wide variety of needs while also helping the world shift to less carbon-intensive sources of energy.
• Decarbonization of the world’s energy system will accelerate
As the world’s economy nearly doubles by 2040, energy efficiency gains and a shift to less carbon-intensive sources of energy will contribute to a nearly 45 percent decline in the carbon intensity of global GDP.
Non-fossil fuels reach about 22 percent of total energy mix by 2040 and oil continues to provide the largest share of the energy mix; essential for transportation and chemicals. Oil and natural gas continue to supply about 55 percent of the world’s energy needs through. Global liquids production rises by 20 percent to meet demand growth’
According to the Outlook global oil resources are still abundant with estimates rising as technology improves. Technology has added tight oil, deepwater and oil sands resources.
“Less than one-quarter of global oil resources have been produced and remaining oil resources can provide about 150 years of supply at current demand.”
ExxonMobil 2018 Energy Outlook)
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