June 20, 2018

Analysis by Rystad Energy shows that Borr Drilling would emerge with the largest and youngest jack up fleet if rigs over 35 years were retired in the short term. Marketed utilization rates would also rebound to 89% by 2020, surpassing rates seen during the heydays before the downturn.
“From the outset, Borr’s founders were betting on a market whose recovery was often posed as an ‘if’ rather than ‘when’ by other voices in the industry. Now, as recovery does seem to be on the horizon, our analysis shows that Borr’s strategy has put them well positioned to take advantage of improving market conditions,” says Oddmund Fore, Vice President of Offshore Rig Analysis at Rystad Energy.
Through a series of strategic initiatives over the past 18 months, Borr Drilling has gone from being a complete newcomer in the jackup market to one of the world’s largest jackup contractors. Borr took advantage of the depressed jackup market by acquiring premium newbuild jackups at reasonable prices as well as making strategic moves on existing distressed assets. Figure 1 shows an overview of Borr’s rig purchases.
Not only has Borr built up a large fleet of capable jackups, it has also followed an aggressive retirement program. So far this year Borr and Paragon combined have decided to scrap 26 ageing jackups. This compares to 17 units retired among all companies globally in 2017.
“Increased levels of attrition are exactly what the jackup market needs on its way to recovery. As Borr positions itself for the long term, its rig attrition program is also helping the entire jackup market by pushing up utilization levels,” Fore says.
The jackup market is starting on its way upwards after reaching a low point in 2017. Drilling programs in the infill and brownfield market segments (infill and workover) are supporting jackup demand together with exploration drilling, which will increase as cash flows improve among E&P players in a high oil price and low-cost environment.
“We expect demand to reach 294 units in 2018, up from 280 units in 2017. Further in the future, we expect to see slow but steady improvement towards 2020, with demand reaching some 327 rig years,” says Føre.
The outlook for jackup utilization remains flat however, largely due to the high number of old rigs in the market that are pressing down the rate. Retiring some of these ageing units would cause a noticeable return in utilization. Figure 2 depicts the scenarios if rigs over 40 years and 35 years, respectively, were retired in the short term. (Source: Rystad Energy)