According to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) Global production of liquid fuels in its forecast will reach an average of 102.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, up from 100.0 million b/d in 2022, driven by large growth in non-OPEC production. However, uncertainty over Russia’s oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023. Global consumption of liquid fuels are expected to increase from an average of 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 102.2 million b/d in 2024. Ongoing concerns about global economic conditions as well as the easing COVID-19 restrictions in China, however, increase the uncertainty of the outcomes of the demand forecasts. With more global oil production than consumption in the forecast, global oil inventories are expected to increase over the next two years.
The EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $83 per barrel in 2023, down 18% from 2022, and continue to fall to $78/b in 2024 as global oil inventories build, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.
(Source: EIA – Image: Pumpjack near Gubkinsky in Western Siberia/Rene.B/energy global news)