March 28, 2020

PWC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) released its study “The Long View – How will the global economic order change by 2050.” The report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:
The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.
By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a PPP basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% a year. Figure 3 shows the projected average annual GDP growth rate over the next 34 years for all of the 32 countries we modelled. Total GDP growth is also broken down into how much is attributable to population growth and how much to real GDP per capita growth.
The world economy will slow down over time, with a marked moderation in growth rates after 2020
Headquartered in London PWC PricewaterhouseCoopers is a multinational professional services network of firms operating as partnerships under the PwC brand.
(Source and image: PWC)