US TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE THROUGH 2040

February 18, 2017

EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2017 Reference case projects that US tight oil production will increase to more than 6 million barrels per day (b/d) in the coming decade, making up most of total U.S. oil production. After 2026, tight oil production remains relatively constant through 2040 in the Reference case as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and as well productivity decreases. Side cases with different resource and technology assumptions result in different tight oil and total U.S. oil production projections.
U.S. production of tight oil has increased significantly since 2010, driven by technological improvements that have reduced drilling costs and improved drilling efficiency in major shale plays such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and the Permian Basin. Production from tight oil plays surpassed 50% of total U.S. oil production in 2015 when tight oil production reached 4.9 million per day (b/d). Tight oil production and overall U.S. oil production are expected to increase through around 2030 in the Reference case. In the Reference case, tight oil production from the Eagle Ford and Bakken—two of the largest tight oil regions in the country—begins to decline after 2020 and 2030, respectively. Production in the Permian Basin (which includes the Austin Chalk, Spraberry, Avalon/Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp plays) remains relatively high through 2040. Compared with the Eagle Ford and Bakken, the Permian Basin has more geographic extent and contains multiple stacked plays, providing drillers with more opportunities for continued long-term development. (Source and image: EIA)