Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future.
EIA (US Energy Information Administration) estimates that an average of 95.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in October. Liquid fuels consumption was down 5.9 million b/d from October 2019, but it was up from both the third-quarter 2020 average of 94.1 million b/d and the second-quarter 2020 average of 85.3 million b/d. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.9 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 5.9 million b/d in 2021.
EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to generally decline to an average of 11.0 million b/d in the second quarter of 2021 because new drilling activity will not generate enough production to offset declines from existing wells. EIA expects drilling activity to rise later in 2021, contributing to U.S. crude oil production reaching 11.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2021. On an annual average basis, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to fall from 12.2 million b/d in 2019 to 11.4 million b/d in 2020 and 11.1 million b/d in 2021.
In 2019, about 69% of total U.S. crude oil production came from five states.
The top five crude oil-producing states and their percentage shares of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 were:
• Texas – 41.4%
• North Dakota – 11.6%
• New Mexico – 7.4%
• Oklahoma – 4.7%
• Colorado – 4.2%
(Source: EIA)